Monday, February 16, 2009

Harrison Schmitt re: global warming

I just heard a news item about former astronaut Harrison Schmitt, who stated recently that the:
"global warming scare is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision making."
You can read the entire article here:

http://www.demingheadlight.com/ci_11712902

I am glad that more scientists are speaking out on this issue, which I feel is blown out of all proportion.

On another note, I have been trying to get my arms around the way the stimulus package is going to work for those of us who are retired, although we still pay taxes to the state and federal government for our pensions. What I heard today is that we will not be receiving lump-sum check this year like we did in 2007; instead, our taxes will be reduced by a pittance each week, on the theory that receiving smaller regular payments will encourage us to buy more, rather than pay down our debt or save for emergencies, large purchases, etc.
Why am I surprised? The powers that be have been using totally insane 'logic' so far to deal with the economic crisis, so why should I expect them to regain sanity now?
On that note, I would like to wish you all happy early Washington's Birthday, and a belated happy Lincoln's birthday... and for those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, these milestones actually used to be celebrated on the actual dates, not a generic, made-up date to make another 3-day weekend... Oh, well!

Friday, February 13, 2009

Yahoo article on the economy

I just got this off of Yahoo... would have linked to the story, but they have a way of disappearing after awhile. Also, I wanted to emphasize a few points (see sentences bolded in red... my emphasis). I have added a few thoughts after the article.

Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s
Friday February 13, 2009, 11:37 am EST


If you think this recession is the worst since World War II, chances are you weren't born or working during the downturns of the 1970s and '80s, you're listening to President Obama too much or you're a white-collar worker in financial services.
If all three are true, you may even think we're on the verge of another Great Depression. At this point, the only thing that may be true is your age and employment status.

"The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression," says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. "The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we'll be more confident." Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent cocktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession-now in its 13th month-is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982.
"We were pretty scared in '82; things looked horrible for awhile," says Bob Stovall of Wood Asset management and a 55-year veteran of the securities business. "I don't think you can say it's worse than then; its different. You have changed the landscape but you did that in the Midwest when you forced a lot
of rust-belt companies to the wall." "This time it's financial firms going out of business, instead of manufacturing ones, and the jobs are going with them," explains Stovall. "I do think that's part of it," says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics, saying that. "They're the ones making the pronouncements. People in the financial sector are getting crushed." They're not the only ones selling doom and gloom, though. "I don't remember a president talking down the economy as much as President
Obama,"
says economist Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "The economy is very psychological. There's a herd instinct." That herd instinct kicked into overdrive after the sudden collapse of Lehman
Brothers, when many say the economy fell off a cliff and a classical cyclical downturn merged with a nasty one-of-kind credit crunch. So yes, economists agree things are bad, but they need to be put into perspective.
Employment
At this point, the current recession is worse than those of the '70s and '80s by
only one statistical yardstick, and that's the unusually quick ascent in the jobless rate-from 4.4 percent in March 2007 to 7.6 percent in January 2008. "People are reacting so adversely to this is because the job market has become so weak," explains Brusca. But even though the sharp decline in payrolls over the past three months has been stunning, it is not as bad on a percentage basis as one period in 1974-1975, according to David Resler, chief economist at Nomura International. Resler says the economy would have to lose some 767,000 jobs a month over a three-month period from the current employment level to match that miserable
performance.
During the 1973-1975 and 1980-1982 periods the unemployment rate almost doubled (4.6-9.0 percent, 5.6-10.8 percent, respectively), which means a peak of about 8.6-8.8 percent this time around. In further contrast, during a ten-month stretch in 1983-1983, the jobless rate was above 10-percent. Nevertheless, that's nothing compared to the Great Depression when the unemployment rate went from 3 percent to almost 25 percent in four years and national income was halved, notes Hanke in a recent column.
Growth
Thought it may be little consolation for the millions of unemployed, GDP is considered by economists to be the best and broadest gauge of a recession. That may seem also peculiar since the economy actually grew in the first two quarters of this recession, but some of that had to do with the Federal Reserve's early and
aggressive interest rate cutting and the federal government's first stimulus plan which quickly put money into people's pockets. Given that backdrop, GDP contraction thus far has been modest. It's down 1.1 percent vs. 3.1 percent in the 1970s period, says Chris Rupkey. And though the economy shrunk at a 3.8 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2008 and is expected to decline another 4.0-6.0 percent in the first
quarter of 2009, imagine the reaction today to the 7.8 percent plunge in the second quarter of 1980 or consecutive swoons of 4.9 percent and 6.4 percent in 1981-1982.
"Half of the workforce until now hadn't seen more than 16 months of recession-total," quips Resler. The past two short (eight months) and relatively shallow. During the 1990-1991 recession, the deepest quarterly GDP decline was 3.0 percent; in the 2000-2001 one it was 1.4 percent. "GDP hasn't been that weak because the productivity increase is one of the best," says Brusca. "You get a quarter or two that really knocks the level
down," he adds, and it looks like we're at that stage now.
This time other fundamental factors are playing a bigger role than the past. "Consumer spending will be bad," says Resler. "We haven't three consecutive quarterly declines in consumer spending since the 1950s." He's definitely expecting a repeat of that.
It's Still Bad
Comparisons aside, no one is saying the current recession isn't a painful one, and some see very little reason for optimism. "I can't identify anything than looks good," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy And Research, adding that business investment-which appeared to be holding up-posted its sharpest decline in 50 years in the final quarter of 2008. "I'd be shocked if we have growth this year," says Baker, even though he expects the Obama administration's stimulus plan to have a sizable economic positive
impact.
So may the words of the President and his advisors, say economists. "It's not surprising that politicians exaggerate this," says Resler, who predicts "The tone of the message is going to start changing immediately; now that we have the stimulus in hand, you enhance it by saying positive things."
Tunnel Thinking
For all the comparisons with other recessions, exaggerated or not, the most meaningful one may be its duration. It is also the toughest.
Economy: Full Coverage
The consensus is this recession will end sometime between the second half of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. The pessimists say wait till next year-period. David Jones, CEO of DMJ Advisors, is among those who see "hints of stability." By that he means, the rate of decline in areas like retail appear to be slowing.
"We'll see the same thing happening on the housing side in the next couple months," says Jones.
"I'm just waiting for the shift in people's expectations," adds Rupkey.

I got some good points out of this write-up, and unfortunately some bad ones too... I think we can all agree that we have some serious economic issues going on right now... the disagreement lies in what needs to be done to resolve the issues. That's where I really disagree with the polititians and the Obama administration. If this situation arose in my home, I don't think I would ever think about GROSSLY AND OBSCENELY INDEBTING myself in order to dig out of a financial dilemma. Instead, my inclination would be to see what I could do to cut unnecessary spending, consolidate debt, and rethink my financial policies going forward in order to PREVENT a recurrance of the situation. If a member of my family came to me because they were in dire economic straits and wanted my assistance, I would not put myself in debt to help them out! Instead, I would offer whatever assistance I thought appropriate, but would also suggest they do what I would do for myself in similar circumstances. So I guess what I would really like to ask our polititians is why they don't use the sense the Good Lord gave a retarded gnat, and stop using a serious situation to further their own pet projects? We did not send them to Washington to act in a totally insane, irresponsible manner, while trying to appear as our Saviors! Fear-mongering, pork-barrel spending, power plays... do nothing to solve our economic crisis or reassure the American taxpayers and voters that a solution is at hand. Instead, it is causing a crisis of confidence among us, which is making the situation worse, not better. Listen up, Washington! Our future, the future of this nation, is in your hands... don't blow it!

Monday, February 9, 2009

Made in the USA?

I recently forwarded an e-mail I received to our son who is in the Army, stationed stateside. The gist of the e-mail was:
'So my challenge to you is to start reading the labels when you shop for everyday things and see what you can find that is made in the USA - the job you save may be your own or your neighbors!'

Here is the reply I received from him:

I have had a personal boycott on Chinese made products for over a year now. Its not about buy in the USA for me. Its about how I don't want to support a government that uses forced abortion, sterilization, political prisoner slave labor in coal mines, and the general oppresion of their population for the purpose to remain in power and advance their influence around the world. Too many US. companies have outsourced their production overseas to ever know if it is really a "Made in the USA" product. A majority of American cars are built in Canada and Mexico, while Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, and Hyundai build more cars here than Ford, GM, or Chyrsler. VW plans on building a plant here and Fiat is considering doing the same. The difference and why they don't get credit is their labor does not come from the UAW. They also buy from the same suppliers as US companies and many of their models are considered American. The Ford Focus and all of its components are made in Mexico but is considered American due to NAFTA. I could give more examples but I have made my point. Repeal NAFTA and renegotiate labor agreements to create real American Products and services at a competitve price. Forward that message to Washington for me because they won't listen to me.

He said I could post it here... and I can't add anything to improve the message!

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Reality strikes...

I have formed an impression based on the recent news that the new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, and former Senator Thomas Daschle both failed to pay income taxes owed. I have no factual data to prove that either of these men intentionally failed to pay taxes, and I am not going to point fingers and cast aspersions. But the impression I do have is that too many facts are not coming to light during the 'vetting' process of potential candidates until late in the process, and I'm wondering why. In the case of the cabinet nominees, if indeed they filed in good faith, thinking they were paying what they owed on their taxes, then I have to ask: is it that they are not taking the time to fill out the forms correctly? Don't they have a tax person to advise them? Or is it that our tax system is soooooooo very complex and controverted that no one can get it right? I would like to assume that the latter explanation is correct... even if either of these gentlemen purposely cheated on their income taxes, I still think it is past time for this country to scrap the tax code and come up with a simple, yet fair, method of calculating what we owe to Uncle Sam. If even the legislators get this wrong, not to mention the person who will head up the IRS, then we have a serious problem, and it should beome a top priority for this administration to solve this problem!

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Sign this petition!

Last night, the $819 billion "Stimulus" Package passed a vote in the house, but the Republicans in the House of Representatives took a big step in regaining their fiscally responsible brand as all GOP members of Congress who voted said 'no' to bigger government, more debt, and wasteful giveaway programs. In addition, 11 courageous Democrats took a stand for fiscal sanity in the face of a menacing Democrat leadership.We're gearing up for a spirited fight in the Senate next week, but need your help. Go to www.nostimulus.com and join the growing army of taxpayers saying NO by signing Americans for Prosperity's petition to stop this disastrous trillion-dollar debt scheme, known as the "Stimulus Package."
Please take 2 minutes to go to this website and be heard!

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Obituary: Common Sense

I just received this from a friend who is an educator... thought it was worth passing on!

Obituary: Common Sense

Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who
has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old she was
since her birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape.
She will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as
knowing when to come in out of the rain, why the early bird gets the
worm, life isn't always fair, and maybe it was my fault.

Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don't spend
more than you earn) and reliable parenting strategies (adults, not
children are in charge).

Her health began to deteriorate rapidly when well intentioned but
overbearing regulations were set in place.

Reports of a six-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for
kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash
after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student,
only worsened her condition.

Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the
job they themselves failed to do in disciplining their unruly
children.

It declined even further when schools were required to get parental
consent to administer aspirin, sun lotion or a sticky plaster to a
student, but could not inform the parents when a student became
pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.

Common Sense lost the will to live as the Ten Commandments became
contraband; churches became businesses; and criminals received better
treatment than their victims.

Common Sense took a beating when you couldn't defend yourself from a
burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.

Common Sense finally gave up the will to live after a woman failed to
realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little
in her lap, and was awarded a huge settlement.

Common Sense was preceded in death by her parents, Truth and Trust;
her husband, Discretion; her daughter, Responsibility; and her son,
Reason.

She is survived by three stepbrothers; I Know my Rights, Someone Else
is to Blame, and I'm a Victim.

Not many attended her funeral because so few realized she was gone.

If you still remember her, pass this on.

If not, join the majority and do nothing.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Conserve, conservative!

Over the years, I have learned through reading, listening to others, and a little soul searching, that I qualify to be referred to as a Conservative, politically speaking. Mostly, I am a fiscal conservative, believing in the free-market system and Trickle-down economics. But I also think I qualify to be referred to as a conservationist, and that spreads throughout my life, including things like recycling, reusing, working to be sure I am not wasting where I can be using things wisely. This past couple of years, I had a rain barrel installed to capture some of the summer rains we get and use it to water the garden; bought and began using a compost bin to reuse kitchen scraps, yard trimmings, shredded newspaper, etc. Now we have a separate waste can to deposit recyclable items to keep them from adding to the landfill. I believe in all of these things as prudent ways to be good shephards of our resources.

Economically speaking, I also believe in using something until it is no longer usable. My car is a 1995 model, and recently turned over 150k on the odometer. I plan to continue using it until it is no longer economically feasible to do so. I try to keep my debt load under control, not borrowing more than I need to, not spending more than I need to either. This means wearing clothes that I have had for awhile instead of stocking up on newer ones; not going out to eat a lot, limiting travels, basically trying to live within our means. This is no great sacrifice, from where I stand! I love being able to put my head on the pillow at night and not spend hours worrying and fretting about how I will be able to meet our monthly financial obligations. Somehow, though, I feel like the 'powers that be' are not happy if the American public isn't spending to the max, therefore not supporting the economy! I fail to see how overspending and getting into debt, having our homes foreclosed, our cars reposessed, because we were not economically prudent, is supporting our economy, can you?

So, on the off chance that we do get one of those much-touted economic stimulus package checks in the mail any time in the foreseeable future, the chances are I will use it to reduce my debt, or to save for future expenses. Right now, we are in the midst of a giant mud puddle here in Flagstaff, since we live on a dirt road and don't have a paved driveway. My hope is that I can take some of that mystical money, or more likely, some of my income tax refund, and have a load of cinder rock put down in our driveway and out into the roadway, so future snows and rainstorms will be a little easier on our 'mud' footprint! But I'm not going to hold my breath, either way....